Friday, August 19, 2011

How high is high enough?

Corn and soybean prices are terrific this year.  Corn prices traded near $8 per bushel earlier this year and harvest prices for this year are the highest I have ever seen.  Soybean prices touched $15 earlier this year and are still above $13.  It is a great year to be a corn and soybean farmer in Iowa.  But, how high is high enough?  This is a great problem to ponder,  but it is also the source of angst.  The current crop fundamentals -- supply and demand balances -- suggest that crop prices could go higher this winter.  And, I would like to capture those higher prices.  But, I also know that "stuff happens" and these high prices could disappear in very short order if world economic conditions continue to deteriorate.  Where is the correct balance between desires for prosperity (greed), horrible hindsight (disappointment at missing market opportunities), and personal serenity. 

Now, to set the stage, I have already priced some corn and soybeans for harvest time delivery -- the corn a couple dollars lower, and the soybeans about 50 cents higher than they are now.  But there is more to sell and I do grow the crops for the purpose of selling them.  But the corn sales I have already made are a reminder that hastiness can be the cause of future angst (worrying about the money left on the table), but they are also a reminder that I have a sound financial base for this crop year and nearly no matter what I do in marketing the rest of this year's crop, it is going to be a very good year (smug satisfaction). 

Now, don't get me wrong -- this is one of the "great" problems to have.  Deciding how much profit one will lock in is so much better than worrying about whether or not the proceeds from this year's crop will pay the bills.  But it is the problem I face and it is one that most farmers face nearly every day.  And no matter what one does, it will be wrong!  Even if I sell at the top of the market, I surely will not have sold enough of NEXT year's crop, so the dilemma is a never ending story that goes on and on.


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